Auction troubles at Indian Badminton League

Maybe we had too high expectations. Maybe I had.

And there really wasn't anything leading up to the Indian Badminton League players auction, that would support this elevated level of expectations.

I somehow just  imagined that it would be better. More professional, better communication....more thoughts and strategy put into it. And maybe it was. If so I just don't get it, but of course that's my headache.

And like I mentioned, there wasn't much to support my expectations. On the contrary actually. The idea of the league surfaced in 2010 or 2011 I believe, and since then it has mostly been rumours. Nothing concrete of any kind but lots of rumours. And even more questions. Who runs the league? Who owns it. What is the format? What is the rules etc....
The Chinese would participate - yes but that would be retired players like Bao Chunlei and Zheng Bo. Everything seemed to be negotiable, and nowhere were reliable information or news to be found. Illustrated excellently when the Leagues homepage went down halfway through the auction.

I really hope this tournament eventually is succesfull, as I believe the world badminton community needs it to help drive the continous development of badminton. But I must say that I'm concerned. How is it going to go when 60 players and lots of officials are going to travel India for 17 days. We just have to keep our fingers crossed.

Strategy

Quite a lot of the franchises  seemed to be taken by surprise at the auction.
Maybe they weren't, but that's surely how it looked to me and the experience I've gained over the past years trying to put a team together on a budget in the Danish League.

 

To me it was impossible to find a red line in the way the franchises acquired players. There might have been one that passed me. That's very possible, I'm not that observant. But anyway there was a lot of bidding that puzzled me.

The way I see it, you could choose to go "the winning way" or the "star-commercial way". Some franchises might have chosen the latter without me being able to spot it. 

Of course one of the two most significant players were Lee Chong Wei, due to his level of play and his dominance over every other player but Lin Dan. The other player being Saina Nehwal, Queen of India and the biggest name in Indian Badminton.

However they probably both became too pricy if you wanted a winning team, as they ended up costing approximately one third of the cap available.

So in my opinion is wasn't a priority for "winning ways" to get one of these two players. On the other hand it would be essential for "star-commercial way".

There are a number of factors to consider putting a winning team together.

First of all it doesn't matter that "my" team cannot beat Chong Wei or Saina. They only count for one point, so the goal is to get three of the remaining four.

And that's important to be aware of - the team consists of five entities. Mens single one and two, Ladies single, Mens double and mixed double.
But the two doubles entities require four players whereas the three singles entities only reqiure three players. What I'm saying is that you have to figure out the price per entity instead of the price per player, and then compare it to expected winning percentages against the players the other franchises acquire.

In this situation I would put a lot of thought into whether it was possible to get a MS player that could win all his matches but against Chong Wei for a reasonable price. At first glance there is no such player available, so I wouldn't spend a lot on the MS1, and I consider P. Kashyap to be overpriced at 75.000 $.

Instead I would look for a very good MS2 and if possible a strong LS that would be able to win all matches except against Saina. Juliane Schenk would be excellent and she ended up 30.000$ cheaper than Saina. She even has a fair chance of beating Saina, and she's not playing the Worlds, so she'll be fresh and hungry coming in to the league.

Buying only one part of a double seems questionable as well.

Especially if that one is expensive. So buying only Carsten Mogensen without Mathias Boe seems foolish to me. Even Joachim Fischer, who is an outstanding team player, would no doubt benefit from playing with Christinna Pedersen instead of Ponnappa. 

The mixed category though, hasn't been given a lot of attention by the franchises and I feel points are up for grabs there.
Warriors - I can't believe they just changed their name - have a strong combination of Jongjit/Sapsiree. Sapsiree is an excellent buy at a bargain of only 15.000, as she can also substitue for P.V. Sindhu in case of injury. The same goes for her partner - if Bodin Issara hasn't hospitalized him - Maneepong Jongjit, who could also form a mens double with Markis Kidho.

I also like The Smashers selection of V. Diju to support Gutta Jwala, but they need to score at least 0.600 in winning percentage to justify the unit price of 61.000$

Another excellent buy is Vladimir Ivanov at 15.000$ as the versatile Russian can be fielded in all three categories.

Acquirings that mystifies me is Pradnya Gadre at a whopping 46.000$ - what has she produced that can justify that price? - and some expensive back-up players of 10.000 or more. After all you only need seven players in a team match, so don't overpay players that won't be able to make difference anyway.

 

Top 3 buys:

1) Maneepong Jongjit, Awadha Warriors, 10.000

2) Lim Kim Wah/ V Goh Shem, Hyderabad Hotshots, 20.000

3) Juliane Schenk, Pune Pistons, 90.000

 

Top 3 risky buys:

1) Pradnya Gadre, Hyderabad Hotshots, 46.000

2) Saina Nehwal, Hyderabad Hotshots, 120.000

3) Hu Yun, Banga Beats, 50.000